Uzbekistan’s Inclusive Turn: Solutions at the Level of Each Mahalla

On 23 January, under the chairmanship of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, a videoconference meeting was held on the key tasks of poverty reduction and employment provision for 2026. In terms of both substance and the framing of issues, the meeting marked a turning point in the evolution of the country’s social policy.

The relevance of transitioning to a new model
The results of the reforms demonstrate a transition to the next stage of social policy. For the first time, poverty reduction has been placed in direct dependence on outcomes at the level of individual mahallas.
This shift is a consequence of the socio-economic results achieved. By the end of 2025, the national economy grew by 7.7%, significantly above the forecast level of 6.5%. GDP exceeded $147 bn, reaching approximately $3,900 per capita. Growth rates in all sectors surpassed those of 2024. Foreign investment reached $43 bn, while exports amounted to $33.8 bn. Inflation declined from 9.8% to 7.3% in 2025.
Sustained economic growth ensured a significant increase in budget revenues, which were consistently directed toward addressing social issues, reducing poverty, and developing mahallas. As a result, in 2025 income sources were provided for 5.4 mn people, and 330,000 families were lifted out of poverty. Unemployment declined to 4.8%, while the poverty rate fell to 5.8%.
As overall poverty indicators decline, its geography is changing. Poverty is becoming localized, concentrated, and heterogeneous. Nearly one-third of low-income households and around one-fifth of the unemployed are concentrated in a limited number of mahallas, which necessitates a transition to a new model.
Against this backdrop, the primary indicator becomes the outcome achieved at the level of each mahalla. The persistence of poverty or unemployment indicates that measures require further calibration.
Accordingly, for the first time at the national level, a systematic classification of all territories by poverty level was conducted. Based on 20 criteria, 37 “difficult” districts and 903 “difficult” mahallas were identified, home to around 120,000 poor families and approximately 155,000 unemployed citizens. At the same time, work to shape the image of a “New Uzbekistan” has also begun in an additional 33 districts and 330 “difficult” mahallas.
A distinctive feature of the new approach is that “difficult” territories are viewed as points of structural transformation. For each mahalla and district, comparative advantages are assessed, including economic, agricultural, industrial, logistics, or service-related strengths.
Individual development programmes for mahallas are being formulated. Practice shows that even in the most vulnerable areas, ensuring stable access to water and electricity, basic infrastructure, and integration with markets can multiply household incomes.
In the current year, territorially targeted development becomes the main instrument for achieving the stated goals, as clearly articulated by the President.
Infrastructure as an economic asset
A particular emphasis in the new model is placed on revising regional policy priorities. As noted by the President, residents and entrepreneurs in “difficult” districts and mahallas primarily expect improvements in roads, water supply, and electricity provision, rather than an expansion of tax incentives.
Concentrating resources on a limited number of problem territories allows infrastructure investment to be transformed from general budget spending into an instrument of targeted socio-economic impact. In 2026, $1.6 bn will be allocated for regional infrastructure development, of which $990 mn will be directed to “difficult” districts and mahallas.
At the same time, transfers from the republican budget to local budgets will double.
Additionally, allocations of $4.1 mn to each “difficult” district and $165 ths to each “difficult” mahalla are envisaged.
In total, district hokimiyats (district executive administrations) and local kengashes (local representative councils) will receive an additional approximately $330 mn exclusively to support problem territories.
A key element of this model is ensuring stable energy supply for “difficult” districts and mahallas.
In 2026, each of the 903 “difficult” mahallas is expected to host the construction of a small solar power plant with a capacity of 300 kW, with a total investment of around $110 mn. These plants will be transferred to the mahallas free of charge, creating a local energy asset. Through the generation of “green” electricity, each mahalla will gain a sustainable additional income source of $33-41 ths per year.
The proceeds are intended to be used for energy-efficient renovation of housing stock, reducing utility costs, and improving quality of life. Operation of the solar plants will involve members of low-income households, simultaneously addressing employment and infrastructure sustainability objectives.
A separate emphasis is placed on supporting the most vulnerable households. An instruction has been issued to conduct targeted assessments of 6,700 families with a member having a first-degree disability and no able-bodied household members, followed by identification of needs for energy-efficient housing upgrades and the launch of “green” renovation.
Taken together, these measures form a model of territorial and energy resilience. The effectiveness of local authorities’ performance will be subject to public evaluation, reinforcing the transition to results-oriented governance.
Comparative advantages of mahallas
The President clearly defined key socio-economic targets for 2026, including the provision of permanent employment for around 1 mn people, lifting 181,000 families out of poverty, increasing the number of poverty-free mahallas by 2.5 times to 3,500, and reducing the unemployment rate to 4.5%.
Achievement of these targets is expected to be based on the comparative advantages of specific districts and mahallas in industry, agriculture, and services. This approach allows resources to be concentrated where they generate the greatest multiplier effects for employment and household incomes.
As an example of leveraging comparative advantages based on location and specialization of mahallas, the President cited Furqat District. Its advantages include, first, cooperation with neighboring economically active centers; second, deepening specialization among nearby mahallas and combining competencies; and third, increasing value added through the launch of processing activities.
Further measures were outlined within the framework of a differentiated approach to developing problem territories.
Deepening mahalla specialization
Primary attention will be focused on deepening mahalla specialization, as welfare levels are significantly higher in mahallas with deep specialization. Practice shows that in such mahallas, welfare levels are noticeably higher, while the number of recipients of social assistance is half as large, at around 7 people per 10,000 population.
Currently, the 903 “difficult” mahallas encompass around 90,000 hectares of household and leased land. To transform this resource into a source of sustainable income, a new mechanism of a “social contract” between the state and the mahalla has been proposed. Mahallas that, by leveraging residents’ skills and rational land use, manage to increase household incomes by three to four times will receive additional financing of $165 ths for the development of road, water, and irrigation infrastructure. Implementation of this model is planned to begin with “difficult” mahallas.
To support deeper specialization, banks will allocate a total of $1.4 bn in loans. For production projects, 4% of the loan will be compensated, while for processing projects the compensation will amount to 6%.
Comparative advantages of mahallas
In 2026, $11.5 bn in credit resources are earmarked for the development of small and medium-sized businesses in mahallas, compared to $10.7 bn a year earlier. At the same time, banks have been tasked with strengthening entrepreneurship financing: alongside a planned $6 bn from external sources, the total volume of funds directed to mahalla-level projects should reach $8 bn.
Not only the scale but also the principle of credit allocation is changing. The model under which loans within the “Family Entrepreneurship” programme were issued on uniform terms at a 17.5% rate across all districts and cities is giving way to territorial differentiation. In particular, for the 37 “difficult” districts, the rate is reduced to 12%. This step transforms lending into an instrument for accelerating the development of problem territories.
In parallel, programme limits and target areas are being expanded. In all districts, the maximum size of concessional loans is increased by 1.5 times, from $2.7 ths to $4.1 ths. To support this decision, an additional $165 mn is added to the planned $297 mn.
Overall, the 2026 credit policy is shaped as a targeted development mechanism, a managed conversion of credit into employment, income, and local growth.
Institutional changes in system governance
A number of institutional changes are also envisaged to enhance the effectiveness of all governance levels involved in mahalla development.
Work in mahallas is moving away from an administrative-intermediary model and is being structured around specific projects. In this framework, the hokim’s assistant acts as a territorial development manager responsible for implementing project solutions.
To ensure integrated project governance, multi-level coordination is being introduced. Initiatives proposed by hokims’ assistants are paired with regional bankers; the first deputy hokim of the region provides operational oversight; and the “Reform Headquarters” supervises issues requiring inter-agency solutions. From February, a system of training hokims’ assistants in project management will be launched, starting with “difficult” mahallas. Each district will form a project portfolio followed by a transition to practical implementation.
One hundred “difficult” mahallas that demonstrate the best performance in job creation, income growth, and poverty reduction will receive an additional $82.5 ths each. Hokims’ assistants from these mahallas will be able to upgrade their qualifications in China, Turkiye, South Korea, and Malaysia.
In this context, work on developing mahalla master plans is being intensified. International experts are being engaged, alongside the potential of domestic universities. Final-year students in architecture programmes will be able to participate in the development of “difficult” mahallas, with the best projects being supported by state grants.
Overall, the institutional changes formalize a shift from a universal approach to a differentiated territorial policy.
Resource redistribution is justified by the structure of the economy: 62% of industrial production and 57% of services are concentrated in 50 districts and cities with high entrepreneurial potential. Growth in their budget revenues creates an opportunity to concentrate state efforts on problem territories.
This is evident from revenue dynamics: three years ago, additional local budget revenues in these 50 territories amounted to $72.2 mn, while in the current year they are expected to increase 8.5 times, to $610.5 mn.
As a result, greater attention can be directed to “difficult” districts and mahallas, where poverty and unemployment are territorially concentrated.
Conclusion
The decisions and instruments for 2026 demonstrate that Uzbekistan’s social policy is moving beyond traditional resource redistribution toward a model of managed territorial development. The new model rests on three interlinked pillars.
First, the concentration of infrastructure resources in “difficult” districts and mahallas, with the creation of long-term local assets, reduced household costs, and enhanced energy resilience.
Second, the expansion of employment based on comparative advantages and deeper territorial specialization, supported by financial incentives, access to credit, and solutions along value chains.
Third, institutional recalibration of governance, where a project-based approach and multi-level coordination align resources, responsibility, and measurable outcomes.
The essence of the current phase is that targeting becomes a technology focused on “difficult” territories. Exiting poverty is understood as an individual household trajectory, in which local conditions, skills, and infrastructure are decisive. The “Mahalla Seven” and the institution of hokims’ assistants serve as the connecting link, ensuring coordination and feedback until results are achieved.

Khurshed Asadov,
Deputy Director of Center for Economic Research and Reforms